Research by Alexandre B. Cunha

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles

Abstract: Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is usually followed by an economic downturn (boom). This essay explains why a benevolent Central Bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. It is shown that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average devaluation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. A currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).
Keywords: exchange rate, business cycles.
JEL classification: E31, F31, F41.

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